Re: Equity and value betting
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You need to factor in that your mediocre hand will sometimes win if you check. Saying "if I bet $X and he fold Y% of the time, I profit, therefore I should bet" is correct only when your hand has no chance of winning the showdown. It will often appear that you stole the pot when the pot was yours. Remember, you can't bluff with the best hand.
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Good point. That is factored in, however. Like I say, for example, if you figure you have a hand that is ahead of 60% of his hands (60% chance to win on showdown) and there is a 30% chance that he will fold - when you put these two TOGETHER, you are in a 72% situation. So, in a world without reraises (hahaha), if the only decision on the river is bet/no bet, followed by call/fold you really only need to have a hand that wins 1/3 of the time combined with a 30% chance of folding in order to bring the entire transaction up to a positive EV at 53%. (this is more akin to shove/fold strategy, though it can be applied on the river as well where the chance of reraise is significantly close to zero)
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