Re: Equity and value betting
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Pot equity is not the main point. As PhlegmWad said, you have to think about the chance of being called by a hand that you can beat. You also have to know what you will do to an all-in reraise.
It's the texture of board that matters, along with the betting to date and style of the other player. You almost never want to bet into a hand that might be sure it has you beat. You also almost never want to bet if you have the weakest likely hand given your betting so far (and if you do bet, it's a pure bluff). You almost always want to put in a sizeable bet if it's a wide-open hand such that the other player is not likely to have nuts, and you have something signficantly better than your weakest possibility. You can't really figure out the EV in that situation, but you can force a hard choice on the other player. When you can't do something right yourself, give someone else a chance to do something wrong.
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Very excellently said Aaron. Perfectly and simply described - I liked the last sentence - as poker is all about making better decisions then your opponents, and they can't make bad decisions if they have no decision to make in the first place! [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
Also excellent to stress the "all-in reraise" angle. Alot of that has to do with your read on the Vil and your table image, and how we got to the point where you are faced with a possible river bet with a medium-stregnth hand.
For example, what if you raised with some suited ace, say A5h and got called preflop by someone who you have position on - say the SB and are heads up. The flop comes 5 K 10 with 2 hearts, Vil checks, you bet out half the pot and get called. Say turn is a blank 2, and Vil check-calls after you bet half the pot again with bottom pair and nut-flush draw. Say river comes another blank.. say a off suit 7 (5 K 10 2 7) and now the Vil checks again. In this case your table image and read on the other player is critical. Could this person have been paying to see with JQ? Against that type of player, a bet on the river will get you nothing. Maybe they were calling you down with a non-nut flush draw and missed. Same thing.
Maybe they have a "decent" or "mediocre" hand here too, like A-10 or J-10? Strangely enough, this is <u>the type of player</u> against whom IN GENERAL, you probably would consider making a nice healthy river bet against with a medium strength hand (even though they have you beat in this case) because they are more likely to call with a hand that you have beat and <u>a reraise is highly unlikely</u>.
But maybe they have a set of 2's or they flopped 2 pair and didn't repop. Are they the "sneaky" type of player who could sit there and just let you fire away, hoping you'll fire a 3rd bullet on the river? Against that type of player, you want to check it down. If its the type of player who bets their hands more forwardly, then you have to think "if he had a set or 2 pair I would have heard about it on 4th street" so you are less likely to face the big reraise out of the blue.
Needless to say, the situation would be completely different if you raise with suited A5, the BB called. Flop, check/check, turn, check/check, river, check and its up to you.
Poker situations aren't static. We aren't plopped down in a situation where we have a "decent" hand on the river, what do we do? <u>How we got to that point is everything.</u>
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