[PhlegmWad]

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That's good that you think about stuff like this. One of the best ways I've improved is breaking down even the simplest concepts.

However, fold equity has nothing to do with deciding whether or not you should value bet. Also, try not to think about it in terms of Equity %'s either.

Here is a hint: When you bet what needs to happen in order to show a profit (think of it in the long run)?

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Im not sure I agree with you here Craig on the matter of fold equity... after all, the original question was what to do with a MEDIOCRE HAND on the river. If the question was, "I have a pretty damned good hand (not the nuts) which I am pretty damned sure is ahead here (although not 100%), then you are correct - fold equity wouldn't be part of it because, you really don't want the person to fold.

But the question here was specifically a mediocre hand which, I take to mean as one which could pretty much be a loser as often as it's a winner on showdown. With that type of hand, the river bet truly isn't a "value bet" in the true sense of the word, and I think fold equity should be at least PART of your thinking and I think EV and pot odds offered are definitely part of it as well.