[Buzz]

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Snort4eva posts the small blind of $2
MissWeaktight posts the big blind of $4

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[ QUOTE ]
*** FLOP *** [9s Tc Jc]
MissWeaktight checks
Snort4eva bets $16
MissWeaktight raises to $44
Snort4eva calls $28

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Supersnort - If MissWeakTight is the big blind, I don't understand how she acts first on the second betting round.

Aside from that discrepancy, Snort4eva is probably ahead after this flop.

How far ahead depends on how many of her outs, especially clubs, MissWeakTight probably holds.

I think it's reasonable to tentatively put MissWeakTight on a flopped straight. And if that is the case, the final board has to either have a pair or enable a flush.

Snort4eva has 7 immediate outs for the board to pair. And then there are 7 more possible outs for clubs. However, it's reasonable for MissWeakTight to hold, on the average, at least one club. And if one club is the case, then Snort4eva only has 13 outs (rather than 14).

So if we think in terms of two four card hands and a three card board, without knowing exactly what MissWeakTight holds, we can use up two cards to put MissWeakTight on the straight.

And unless either of those are clubs that doesn't use up any of Snort4eva's outs.

Since we're figuring on the basis of two four-card hands plus a three card flop, once we put MissWeakTight on a particular 4 cards, there will be 41 cards whose whereabouts are unknown.

Turns out we can use up anywhere from four down to none of Snort4eva's outs, if we put MissWeakTight on the straight.

With 14 outs after the flop, Snort4eva is ahead 469 to 351.

With 13 outs after the flop, Snort4eva is ahead 442 to 378.

With 12 outs after the flop, Snort4eva is ahead 414 to 406.

With 11 outs after the flop, Snort4eva is behind 385 to 435.

It's possible that MissWeakTight has a straight flush draw, for example
Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-Y-Z, which could actually reduce Snort4eva's outs to ten or even nine, depending on Y and Z.

But at any rate, Snort4eva is probably ahead after the flop, maybe averaging 430 to 390, something in that range. That's approximately a 52.5% (for Snort4eva) to 47.5% (for MissWeakTight) edge in pot equity.

However, when the turn misses, the advantage reverses, and substantially! Suddenly MissWeakTight, if holding the straight, has approximately a two to one edge!

The most outs Snort4eva can have are 14. And if so, the other 26 cards belong to MissWeakTight.
Or if Snort4eva only really had 13 outs, then MissWeakTight has a 27 to 13 edge.

And that's very reasonable. I think between 27 to 13 and 28 to 12 (roughly two to one) is the actual advantage MissWeakTight has after the turn, if she flopped the straight. Snort4eva still has implied pot odds to call the turn bet and plays perfectly by calling the turn bet, and also perfectly by folding to the river bet.

One could argue Snort4eva should have bet $24 on the second betting round, but in my humble opinion, the $16 bet (2/3 of the pot) was very reasonable and possibly induced MissWeakTight to mistakenly raise.

Indeed, all Snort4eva did wrong, in my humble opinion, was not re-raising MissWeakTight's mistaken raise on the flop. And that one was pretty close. And as things turned out, making the mistake of not re-raising actually probably worked out better for Snort4eva.

Buzz