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folding is always 0EV (you never win anything by folding, but you never loose anything either)
here are some numbers
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That analysis was bad. Why not make the previous raise to 99 BB, and then incorrectly conclude that you can't fold AK when you see that your opponent has AA?
As I stated earlier in this thread, "One common misconception is that you have to be very sure that you are up against AA in order to fold. In fact, AA is more of a favorite over KK than KK is a favorite over {QQ-KK, AK}, so if the push was a big overbet, even a 50% chance that you are up against AA instead of {QQ-KK, AK} means you should fold. "
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Make up a different scenario (villian raise, I reraise to 20BB, he pushes) and you have to be very sure he does push w/ QQ, AK, AQ etc to make a call +EV
And in the NL50, NL100 FR games of fulltilt I never saw someone 4bet 100BB all in vs a 100BB stack with AQ or QQ. Even AK is very very rare.
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Right. If the push is not a 1/2 pot raise, you don't need to be 92% sure your opponent has AA to fold KK. If the push is twice the pot, you need to win 40% to call. If you assume you are an 80-20 underdog when you are behind, and a 75-25 favorite when you are not, then you are really getting (75-40)
40-20) = 7:4 odds. In that situation, a 7/11 ~ 64% chance that your opponent has AA means you should fold.
It's not hard to find examples where someone pushes with AA with a full stack at NL $100. To call with KK when the push is an overbet, you need to find many examples where someone pushes all-in (not calls all-in) at that level with QQ or worse in a comparable situation to the one where you are considering calling. I've seen these often at NL $25 where people don't know what a strong hand is, and at NL $1000 where 3-bets mean less, but they arene't as common in NL $100 where the players are passive and often know that 3-bets mean a lot. Blind versus blind, or when a short stack or maniac is in the hand, may be a clear call. When you reraise an early position raise and a non-maniac pushes may be a clear fold.