[franknagaijr]

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However, my first impulse is to assign least a 48% chance that V has the diamonds for a semi-bluff

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I’d be interested to know how you came up with a least a 48% chance that he has diamonds.


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In case V is semi-bluffing, some kind of reraise might be appropriate here. Since this is HU, a full repot may not be necessary. I think that if you flat call here, V will pound any low turn, but V may slow down on a diamond if he has none.


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Did you consider the stack sizes before writing this?




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The 48% was pulled completely out of thin air. What I'm trying to say is that I certainly don't rule out a diamond semi-bluff here, esp since hereo doesn't have 'em.

For the stack sizes, a repot on the flop or turn would be a pretty big gamble and would commit hero, yes. If we get stacked here, we're weak, but blinds are still low enough to recover this.