[MCS]

My quick analysis is that there may be good value on the YES.

Let's assume initially that each game is an independent coin flip. Whoever wins G1 now has to win two in a row, which happens 25% of the time. The 75% of the time it doesn't happen, it is because the G1 loser won G2 or G3, and after whichever one they win, there's a 25% chance they'll win their next two.

So the yes is already up to (.25)+(.75)(.25) = 0.4375, which makes +140 a +EV bet, and we haven't even accounted for winning patterns like ABAAA or AABABBB.

It's probably worth doing this type of analysis if you assume that the teams are 55/45 or whatever, or maybe you could create some Excel simulations using predicted game lines.

This bet strikes me as a sucker prop bet where you can get good value on the side that looks instinctively horrible. Part of what makes it tricky is that when you read it you think about whether a specific team will win three in a row and it seems so unlikely. But someone is going to win game 1, and that team then just needs to win two in a row, which isn't so farfetched.