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Old 10-12-2007, 05:48 AM
Leader Leader is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Excellence: Learn, Play, Win.
Posts: 7,682
Default Re: Every [censored] time

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This thread and other threads have made me believe that the AF is pretty much a useless stat unless you have mined hands on villains.

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I would agree with that.

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So does any of you stat guys (Leader) know wther some of the other aggression stats you can use in HUD converges faster? Namely the "aggression frequency"?

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Aggression frequency is a much better stat in terms of reliability because it's a basic binomial random variable. Variables of this nature either happen or don't. So in this case, there's either a bet or raise or there's not. So it converges at the same rate as VPiP/PFR with the stipulation that it only occurs post flop. Convergence in all these spots is about number of observations. In contrast, AF you have three binomial interacting. Wikipedia has a good article on binomial random variables. People really should read it so that they can understand the basic dynamics. This is Stat 101 stuff BTW not like my new friend the Box-Jjong statistic, which estimates the joint probability that all preceding lags in a time series are non-significant.

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I am not quite sure what that stat measures, but I beleive its how often a player either bets or raises on any (postflop) street

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bets and raises as a % of total actions.

All this said, I rarely use any postflop stats aside from WtSD anymore. Pre-flop stats are an effective and IMO essential tool if available, but postflop is the realm of reads, experience, and theory a million times more then it's the realm of "% folded to river c/r" or some other crazy stat that happens once every 500 hands. Even something like AFreq is going to converge slowly, and in the end, it tells you very little because it's so broad. So you're faced with a paradox with post flop stats. Stats that converge over any reasonable time frame tell you almost nothing about how villain plays in any spot and specific stats take 50K hands to converge by which time villain probably doesn't even play the same.
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