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Old 10-12-2007, 01:34 AM
whyherro whyherro is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2007
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Posts: 392
Default Re: NL25 - Good call down or spew?

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Prolly Spew - think about his calling range preflop. The hands you are hoping for, basically AT or A9 type hands, never reraise this flop. You raised preflop, they are probably worried about their kicker. This is at a minimum 2 pair and more likely a set IMO as low PP's make up a lot of his range here.

I will say though, once you get to the river, the shove looks pretty bluffy.

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BTW, you really don't think Ax hands raise this flop?

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I mean I wouldn't rule it out, as occasionally you run into weak ex-tourny players at this level who would raise a weak ace on this flop.

This is an incredibly dry board, raising a weak ace here is pretty terrible because given relative preflop ranges you are only getting called by better.

Its kind of like someone who thinks "Hey, I have an ace with a 9 kicker, I am going to raise to see where I am at" - you don't raise to find out where you are at, you raise because you want more value out of your hand, and in this situation there is a reasonable likelihood that you have the worst hand.

Hands that might raise this board: sets, two pair (makes sense since Axs (where x is low) is a reasonable % of his preflop calling range), or a flush draw looking to get tricky. Raising a flush draw here is a reasonably tricky semi-bluff since it splits your range b/w monster and draw.

Nevertheless, you don't have much equity against this range, even against a flush draw you aren't a big enough favorite to compensate for the times where you are effectively drawing dead.
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