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Given that desalinization is already comercially viable at a time when fresh water is incredibly cheap, I think you are wrong.

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I am far from convinced that desalinization is commercially viable except under relatively rare scenarios. The only one I can think of is joining a desalinization with a thermal power plant to save on the heating costs. Take away that power plant (which may well face significant problems of its own in the near future) and the costs increase greatly. Alternative energy sources don't have this advantage. Desalinization on a large scale would also represent a massive increase in energy demand and drive up energy prices even more.

As for energy intensiveness of desalinization, it is massive if you consider the volumes involved. Especially when you realize that we're not just talking about drinking water here.

As for the price of oil v. water, I don't think the author intended this at all. If he did, he's an idiot. The issue is importance to national, regional, and global economies.

It's easy to demonstrate that price isn't the key issue:

What's more important to the global economy right now, oil or silver? Now, which one fetches a high price on the open market?