[tjfields]

[ QUOTE ]


I say fold the turn because:
- most of the time one of your 4 outs is in somebody's hand so you only have 3 outs,
- sometimes the turn will be capped,
- it's 2 or 3 big bets you have to put in in a marginal spot, and
- I couldn't fold the river when I miss getting a brazillian to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with most of this sentiment:

1. (At least) one of my outs are in someone else's hands, so I do not have 4 outs to the nuts. Whether I have 3 (or fewer) outs remains to be seen.
2. I am also assuming by the turn action by the time it gets back to me the second time that I am up against at least one 8 (likely not in SB's hand - probably HJ), and am drawing.
3. Sometimes the turn WILL be capped - I have to figure this in to whether I will be calling.
4. Putting 2-3 big bets in marginally is not bad if it is marginally +EV (e.g getting correct pot odds)
5. Ah, what to do on a blank river. Well, that is a pickle, right? Lemme figure out the turn first:

Next step in my mind: implied odds. How many of the (potential) 16 BB that could go in on the river will be mine if I hit? Consider I will likely be up against 2 (or more) smaller boats, one of which will give me max action (the other A if an A rivers), and the other(s) that may not get away from their 8's.

Once we figure that out, we figure if 3 outs (or less!) are sufficient to call given implieds. I am getting a total of 31.5:2 odds if there is no raiser behind me or 36.5:3 if capped.

Anyone want to tackle this before I get my math on?