Re: Child\'s QQ -v- Yang\'s JJ
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I think he was getting nearly 3:1 on his money here.
I did a Poker Stove on Yang's hand range. It's a pretty tight range, but even if you include 77, 44, 22, it's 60/40 in favor of Yang. It's a clear call. Might have even included other hands that Childs has beat like 88, 99, naked AK, AQcc. It's a call.
172,260 games 0.003 secs 57,420,000 games/sec
Board: 7c 4d 2c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.777% 44.13% 01.65% 76020 2835.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 54.223% 52.58% 01.65% 90570 2835.00 { TT+, 77, AcKc }
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This is a perfect example to illustrate my earlier post. For most players including myself, a call wont be made by a comparison of pot odds to equity. You are saying his hand holds up about 1 in 2 times here, and by pot odds he only needs to win 1 out of 4 times to make this call profitable. But I argue this isnt the case. He wont be getting 4 times to make this call in a identical situation let alone a large sample that would make his call correct. This is his one chance at the ME final table. I would decide more heavily towards, "Do I think I am good here?" If you argue that this is theoretically the incorrect way to paly, I agree only in theory. But if you clearly defined Jerry's range as the one above and I was getting those odds, I might consider the fold still. My overall point is that on a daily basis, I make decisons on strictly "is it + or - EV?" as most of you try to do I am sure. BUt how many people agree with me , if they were at the ME final table that there would be bigger motives, like surviving, and enjoying the experience for a longer time.
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