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Old 10-10-2007, 06:56 PM
Schiester Schiester is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 298
Default Re: 25nl; boat on turn = value?

[ QUOTE ]
yeah your bet sizing is pretty bad. is this spewey? don't know why you're asking this question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Until the turn I've put $6.5 into a pot where I'd give myself slim chances of actually being ahead.

Although AK is makes up 50% of the range I would guess this villan to be 3betting pf (i.e. JJ+, AKo, AKs), I would guess that at this level (and considering the raise size) it is more likely to be much lower.

i.e. JJ+:AK ; 80:20

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

142,560 games 0.094 secs 1,516,595 games/sec

Board: 6s 3h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 08.384% 08.38% 00.00% 11952 0.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 91.616% 91.62% 00.00% 130608 0.00 { JJ+ }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

95,040 games 0.005 secs 19,008,000 games/sec

Board: 6s 3h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.328% 75.33% 00.00% 71592 0.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 24.672% 24.67% 00.00% 23448 0.00 { AKs, AKo }


So at an estimate my flop equity is =

0.8*8.4 + 0.2*75 = 11.72


After reading this I think I like the line of c/c flop and bet more on next 2 streets... although this time I got lucky with a cheap look at the turn card because the villan was so passive post flop.
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