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Old 10-10-2007, 06:45 PM
greggg230 greggg230 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 755
Default Re: Pot Odds Question

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First of all, there's no such thing as a big bet in NLHE - you could count the pot in terms of big blinds, but that's more or less useless, unless people are min-betting.

That equation is based on the assumption that you'll be calling one big bet to win a pot of 9 big bets. In other words, you're 39:7 ~= 5.5:1 shot and you're being laid 9:1 odds from the pot, so it's an easy call with 7 outs on the turn. That method is just a simplification which is made possible by the fixed limit betting structure. So, it really can't be used in NLHE.

I think everyone goes about it different ways, but the way I calculate odds is just using percentages. If I'm getting 3:1 on my money I know that, in order to break even, I need to win 1/4rd of the time. If I'm on the turn, that means I need to have about 12 outs to justify my call based on immediate pot odds alone. Keep in mind that NLHE is a game that is often more concerned with implied odds than pot odds, which is a big difference from limit. Since you didn't ask about implied odds, I won't go into that here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Please explain more

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What in particular?

The basic idea is that the ratio of the bet you need to call to the pot should be smaller than the ratio of the number of outs you have to the number of cards that won't help you.

So, say you're on the turn with an open-ended straight draw and you'll have the nuts if you hit (no flush draw). So, you have 8 outs.

Now, the pot is $100 on the turn and someone makes a bet of $50. The pot is now $150 and you have to call $50. So you're being laid 150:50 or 3:1 on your call.

Now, what are the odds of making your hand? There are 8 cards in the deck which will make your hand out of 46 unseen cards. So, the odds are 38:8 or about 5:1 against you. So, based on immediate pot odds alone, you can't call here.

However, say you put your opponent a strong hand that he'll likely call a sizable bet with on the river if you do make your hand - such as a set. If you call his bet, the pot will be $200, and so a reasonable sized bet would be $150 (which he'll almost certainly called with such a strong hand). So, if you make your hand, you stand to make what's in the pot ($150) plus a river bet ($150). So, you're really calling $50 to make $300 and your implied odds are 300:50 or 6:1. You only need 5:1, so you should call here.
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