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Old 10-10-2007, 05:40 PM
Silent A Silent A is offline
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Default Re: Child\'s QQ -v- Yang\'s JJ

Here's the action on the hand:

With 630K in blinds and antes, Childs raises preflop to 720k UTG with QQ. Yang re-raises UTG+1 to 2.5 million with JJ. Folds to Childs who calls.

Pot = 5.63 million

Flop = 7 4 2 (2 clubs)

Childs bets 3 million and Yang says "all-in" for 11.78 million before Childs finishes putting in his chips.

Pot = 19.41 million, 7.78 million to call (Childs covers, but apparently not by much).

That's 2.5:1, Childs needs 29% equity to call (ignoring the chip EV to money EV gap).

If Yang's range is (AA-QQ, AcKc) then it's a good fold:

Hold'em Simulation
13,860 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 7c4d2c
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QsQh 13.46% 1,393 945
AA-QQ,AcKc 86.54% 11,522 945

Anything wider, and it's not:

Hold'em Simulation
19,800 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 7c4d2c
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QsQh 36.24% 6,703 945
AA-JJ,AcKc 63.76% 12,152 945
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