Re: theory question
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Acevader, I'm not saying I don't think it's likely, I'm saying you still have to acknowledge there's a risk to your preflop equity if you take the call line.
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Of course there is a risk. He might make some stupid hero call with just a low pair on a scary board or actually hit a strong hand we know we can't get him to fold.
But that's like saying you should push AI with AA on the BTN to secure the assured profit from the BB+SB. You'll take down a little profit each time but unquestionably the better line is a normal raise even though it incurs a degree of risk in that you can be beaten or stacked on the flop/turn/river.
Those that say to push preflop have a tournament mentality - they see a pot grow to a certain size and then they just want it and are happy for their profit. Cash games as we know are about overall expected value in the long run and as Gonso and I are saying, whilst riskier, the most profitable move here is to see a flop and usually let villain run his bluff.
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Maybe, but again I don't want him to all-in bluff. He still has a reasonable amount of showdown equity which limits my EV - which is less than the EV I think you could reasonably expect taking a flop.
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Agree, if we get AI we'd be 60/40 with $12,000 equity in the $20,0000 pot thus an EV of +$2000.
If we take a flop by calling we have a pot of around $2400 on the flop and if villain c-bets most of the time for $2000 it creates a pot with $3200 of villains money in it. If we take that by bluff/having the best hand around 75% of the time (reasonable I feel) then that's +$2400. If we consider him potentially bluffing more or getting AI with lesser hands, etc, etc we can gain even more. So again, taking the 'see a flop line' would likely have a higher expectation.
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