[MyTurn2Raise]

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Well, even though I said I wasn't going to bet any more games after last week, I've still kind of been eying the lines, and I may bet a couple games on a purely recreational basis.

My leans this week are:
Iowa +3.5
TCU -6
Kentucky +9
Notre Dame +13.5
OU/Mizz over 61

Out of those, Iowa +3.5's the one I like best, as it seems like everyone's piling on the Illini this week and they've been getting a lot of media attention for being "underrated" and underranked after their last two wins.

The fact that they're only a 3.5 point favorite against a team who's 0-3 in conference seems to reflect the sharps backing Iowa. Also, they're only favored by 2 according to Sagarin which while still bayesian is only lightly impacted by preseason rankings at this point of the season and is only impacted by them at all because Sagarin obviously has found including them at this point of the season makes the rankings more accurate. Also, Iowa had their best defensive game of the year against a Wisconsin team that also loves to run the ball much like Illinois.

Add in the obvious letdown factor with Illinois being a young team that's not used to success and could very easily overlook an 0-3 team on the road and I really think that Iowa should keep this close if not win outright. I may move money to a book with first half lines for this game as I think Iowa has a much better chance to outplay Illinois in the first half when the Illini don't really have their heads in the game than they do down the stretch if the Illini are trailing since Illinois is the more talented team.

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nice hit on the Bears ML...I see you are putting my strategy into practice

I completely understand why you are going against me here. I think my first post in this thread sums up part of the reason. This is a letdown game and I expect the public to be heavy on Illinois. Just as very few could see Illinois favored v Wisconsin last week, very few don't see Illinois covering. It's always a good idea to be with the 20% betting heavy amounts balancing the other 80% betting recreationally.

It sticks in the back of my mind how Iowa has dominated Illinois of late.

Two games that also stick in my head are Rutgers (9-0) @ Cincy (5-5) last season and UCLA (8-0) @ Arizona (2-6) in 2005. In both cases, the schools were having an above expectation season though they both had heavy upside dreams coming into the season. In both cases, they were coming off nail-biting big wins. Both cases were against inferior opponents on the road. Both got smoked. (I predicted both which is why I remember and love to bring the games up.)


That being said, I just think the matchups here are too lopsided.

I've added on to my position.

Illinois -3.5 @ Iowa bet 3.15u to win 3u
with the previous wager, that makes the total bet on the game
Illinois -3.5 @ Iowa bet 5.15u to win 5u

I see the lines moving more toward Illinois and I don't expect it to move back, so I grabbed Illini -3.5 while I still could.

From everything I've heard, the Iowa injury situation is bad. MLB and all-big11ten candidate Klinkenborg is out. The TE, Moeaki, is out. One of the safeties is out. All-big11ten LT Dace Richardson is out.

Iowa was already 118th in NCAAF for sacks allowed. Now, they lose their stud blindside tackle before playing Illinois, whom is 13th with 3.33 sacks per game.
Without a good TE, no pass protection, and the previous WR problems I mentioned, I just see no way of this team scoring enough points to keep close to Illinois.
It will take a +3 turnover day for the Hawkeyes, which is unlikely given the amount of times they will be under pressure and tackled for losses.

It looks pretty bad the other way losing the star MLB and secondary help. One needs experience and hard hitting to the outside to stop the spread shotgun rushing attack.

But, Iowa does have talented, experienced DEs which can help.


All the 'sharp' betting philosophy says to be on Iowa. However, the game matchups themselves are about the ugliest I've seen in awhile.

FWIW--I was expecting a 8-9.5 spread on this game.