Re: Tilty bluff - this is horrible isn\'t it
One thing that we need to think about in these situations though, is what does that "fold to flop bet" number really mean, i.e., what is it based on? It encompasses all times that villain folded to a flop bet. But it does not differentiate for us whether he folds to donk flop bets or flop bets when he open limps (which, judging from his stats he does quite often). So , given that his raising range is tight, and he has raised from UTG, he is probably sitting on a decent hand here.
Maybe a better line for us to take here would be to check his cbet %, and if it is high plan for a c/r? I don't know how great this is, but if he has some outrageous cbet % (like me, mine is usually 80%-90%) then he is more likely to cbet air and might fold to the aggression that we show with a c/r. Of course, the two problems with this are:
1. He is probably less likely to cbet into 2 opponents
2. If he flat calls our raise we are screwed, as the pot is now huge and if we don't lead the Turn we may get played back at and not really know where we are.
So even looking at the c/r line it doesn't seem like a real great spot. I dunno'... c/f >>donk bet>c/r?
Yeah, all in all, this probably was a good spot to try and play for set value and that is about it.
|