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Old 10-10-2007, 02:39 PM
brianmarc brianmarc is offline
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Join Date: May 2003
Location: New York City
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Default Re: Discuss: Thoughts on Overpairs

In example 2 I don't like the slow play given the 2 clubs. But this is because I never found a player who would raise in EP with QQ+ and fold AKs and AQs, and usually also AJs too. In this case you surely want to charge her more if she is drawing, but also, if she has aces that include the Ac, or she has AKo, with the same A, he's giving her great implied odds for the nut flush draw. And if any club comes on the on the turn or river and the board remains unpaired, he's now playing defense with terribly difficult decisions if she bets or raises. Finally, I can't imagine AL has played enough and seen enough against any player to be as sure as he is that she can only have a major pair. (I'd be interested in hearing from him what he did observe to lead him to this critical conclusion).

Bottom line: this play is predicated almost entirely on a possibly heroic hand read, that, even if he is right, it is a situation that is very, very unlikely to confront his readers.
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