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Old 10-10-2007, 12:33 PM
Proofrock Proofrock is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: Etherized upon a table
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Default Re: Repping Strength Based on Stack Sizes

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Edit: BTW, I made a post a long time ago about small sample sizes and stats. TBH, I think you are dead wrong if you say these sample sizes are too small to be useful. In the case of this hand, the BB is ~2.5 times more likely to have a true VPIP of 10 than of 20, ~7.5 times more likely to have a true VPIP of 10 than 30, and ~2.9 times more likely to have a true VPIP of 20 than 30. I'll try to search for and bump that old post.

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8 hands? Yes, I'd like to see your post -- I know many of the wonders of statistics, but 8 hands is less than 1 full orbit and definitely isn't enough to say with any great degree of certainty that BB is a nit -- the uncertainty of your assessment has to be pretty large. For example, I usually run 16/11 at full ring MTTs, but it's not uncommon to find stretches where I fold 20-30 hands in a row. Yes, you can tentatively say "he's most likely tight," but need to be cautious about making a close move that relies on him being extremely tight.
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