[CarlSpackler]

Would it be possible that something as say moving from the standard 11 game schedule to a 12 game schedule in the cfb regular season would be enough to throw off Dr. Bob's model significantly? I was thinking about this the other night.

Back in the day, before the 12 game schedule, one of the strongest trends he used every year was to fade teams who were playing their 5th game before October. The reasoning behind this trend was pretty simple: these were teams that played the week before the regular season started in the Kickoff Classic, etc., and had no bye weeks before they played their 5th game, and were playing an opponent who had played only 2 or 3 games previously, and thus were fresher, more well rested and recovered from injuries.

Now he used further analysis to decide games which qualified for this trend were plays or not, but even if a monkey blindly followed only this trend over the years, he would of made a lot of $$$$, as it was really strong.

Well, now every team plays 12 regular season games, so this trend is useless. Now forget about the trend and think about how this extra game impacts cfb. Teams now only have 1 bye week, instead of 2. In theory shouldn't this increase the variance in the outcome of games, since teams now don't have that extra week off to rest and heal? Combine this with the ever increasing parity in cfb, and I think Dr. Bob's model is almost certainly outdated to some significant degree.