[Numfar]

Very interesting thread.

A couple of more thoughts. Firstly, a lot of people are discounting the likelihood of the hands that push their decision one particular way. You can't do that - you need to look at both sides. So, it's not likely that he has AQ or JJ which is fair enough but as Jouster said, why would he play KK or QQ like this when, as this thread shows, it will get AK to fold?

Secondly, if he seldom plays AQ or JJ like this then how does he play them? I think JJ is more likely so I'll look at that. He re-raises PF - a 10 PFR would often do that. He fires the standard continuation bet. Then on the turn he picks up an OESD. Does he check fold? He knows you bet if he checks. If I'm him I think I have to push because I have outs and need to maximise my last bit of FE. Maybe AK or AQ will fold.

With AQ it's harder - I can see a check fold on the Turn.

The other thing is that it turns out that if we are villain, the correct play is to shove the Turn because Hero folds his AK 84% of the time.