[mongidig]

[ QUOTE ]
This game is sick. Three or more family pots a round, routinely 7 players for two bets, never less than 6 players seeing a flop. The whole game is pretty passive. That being said...

SB (Villain) in this hand is actually one of the more solid players in the game. He is passive, but not as passive as everyone else. I even saw him correctly bet/fold top pair once on the turn, so he kind of knows what he's doing. We're talking a lot and I like him. UTG+1 is just terrible. Plays the majority of his hands, and poorly. His preflop raising range is ginormous; he's one of those guys that will lecture you at the bar about "changing gears".

Canterbury Park 6/12, full game

Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG limps, UTG+1 RAISES, EMP calls, MP calls, HJ calls, CO folds, Hero calls, SB (Villain) calls, BB calls, UTG calls

Flop (8 players, 16 SB):

T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 RAISES, EMP folds, MP folds, HJ calls, Hero THREEBANGS, Villain calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, HJ calls

Turn (5 players, 16 BB!)

5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

All check, Hero bets, all call!

River (5 players, 21 BB):

5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

All check, Hero bets, Villain RAISES, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls (?), HJ folds, Hero goes into tank and then threetowns...

Meh? I felt this particular player would play a set harder than the flop. On the other hand, we have been talking and I can tell that he has respect for my game. God only knows what UTG+1 is doing.

Thoughts?

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I think this is a three bet for the following reasons.

1) Although you have just been check-raised, it doesn't seem likely that either of your opponents has a full boat. UTG+1 just called the raise and is terrible and The villian has not played this hand in a way that would represent a full house. With a board like this I would estimate that there is 15% chance you are beat. This is only an estimate.

2) I don't think it is likely you will get reraised even if you are beat since the SB is passive and the UTG+1 has only been reacting to the bets so far.

3) you have a pretty good chance of getting both players to call since the pot is huge, UTG+1 is terrible, and SB probably has a big enough hand. SB could have 58s or 45s or A5s. I have seen players whom I thought played decent make some marginal to bad calls in what is going to be a big pot.

You don't get big hands often enough to leave bets on the table. Sometimes you will get beat but most of the time you will have the winner. Play the percentages.