Re: Odds of this?
I've worked this out before, but frustratingly the forum it's on was terminated. Whilst I haven't looked this up and check, I think I remember the basics, so quickly...
The easiest way is to realise as mentioned that there's 3 ways of being dealt AA. Now you simply multiply 3x Number of Hold'em hand combinations possible from unseen cards. I think Buzz gets the divide by 2, because 46x45x44! / (44! x 2) = 46x45/2 is the formula for working 2 card combo's out. Number ways of combining 2 things.
On the flop, you can reduce the number of Hold'em hands possible, as you've seen more cards; an Axx flop, makes AAxx less likely, but if the betting pattern strongly suggests AAxx and not other hands fitting with it, then you should use Bayesian probability, and not statistics of card dealing to inform your decision.
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