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Old 10-09-2007, 03:44 AM
Mitke Mitke is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: On a learning curve...
Posts: 308
Default Re: 1-2.....tough spot against (preflop) maniac

I'd check this turn. A scary turn card is just what maniac's love to be tricky with in HU pots. The pot is smallish. We have a hand that has a bit of showdown value against the maniac's range. A significant part of the maniac's range does contain pocket pairs, A-high and better kings too.

I'd choose the path-of-smaller-variance here and check the turn and call/check behind any river I miss and raise if I hit. Betting risks having to pay 3BB to see showdown or folding the best hand and I'd hate to do that (although the pot is smallish). The maniac will bluff the river with a lot of hands we beat here after we show weakness on the turn.

If we are ahead the villain has probably 6-ish outs. Giving a free card in a smallish pot is not risking much here. I don't think our equity exceeds 2.5BB (by much at least) on turn and we sometimes win 1-2BB more when the maniac bluffs the river we either catch a bluff and/or raise with a hit.

I honestly don't know if this line is more EV+ than betting the turn but against a very aggressive villain it's at least a line I'd feel comfortable, but weakish, with.

As played, I'd call the turn. 7.75:1 and the villain's range consists a bluff we beat or a hand we can beat if we catch a lot of the time here. Calling the river then with K-high getting 9.75:1 sucks big time but villain's bluffing frequency for turn c/r - river lead needs to be only 9.3%.
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