[dooom]

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O RLY?

Villain is 32/6/.4 (47)

First off, we've got less than 50 hands on villain: that's not a read, it's a handshake. Second, from what little we've seen of him, he wouldn't know the "raise" button from a bread basket. Face it -- we've got no clue about villain's hand: don't trick yourself into thinking that you know hero's ahead or some such nonsense.


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If we truly have no clue about villain's hand, then we have to assume we are ahead as played. When you don't have enough hands for a proper "read", I think you have to assume a set raises somewhere in there.

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Actually, if villain had two pair on the turn there are 45 different ways that could have happened, and eighteen of them give villain a full house. If villain has a 2-in-5 chance that he filled up, and that's not exactly "safe" from two pairs.


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If he has a set, we lose. If he has an 8, we lose. What can we do about it at this point with the hand as played? If we're truly going to assume villain is a brain dead moron, we have to assume he's going to play TPTK as he has played this hand. If he had an 8, he sucked out - that's life. He doesn't have an 8 often enough to make me not value bet the hell out of this hand. If he has a set, I'm very surprised and make a note of it.

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So villain calls a pot-sized raise with AT? Yeah, OK, I'll buy that if he's the idiot that his numbers indicate, but my read is way too thin for that. I'd probably make it $30 -- a roughly half-pot sized bet. Obviously I'm calling a push, but I'd like to maximize my chance of getting paid off by a weaker hand.
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I agree you have to VB this hand. I personally would push it, because I know I'm not getting away from it and am willing to bet I'm ahead here the majority of the time. You can make an argument for 1/2 PSB, PSB, push, whatever - but you have to bet this.

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Personally, I wouldn't have bet so strongly on the flop or turn -- you've got nothing to protect against and you have no solid evidence that villain calls down light. Plus you've got one freakin' pair -- it's not the nuts. I'd probably make a standard c-bet of $6, then $14 or so on the turn (2/3rds) and half-pot on the river. If villain raises somewhere, I'm strongly considering folding or at LEAST shutting down.

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I like the strong betting because it allows an easy shut down if played back against, esp against this villain. I do see what you're saying about pot control though with an overpair on a rag board w/ unknown opp.

Just my semi worthless 2c