[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
fold because he's rarely raising with jj and the like.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. QQ is ahead of villain's range, which is going to include a couple smaller pairs and also AK and probably AQs. If we dodge an ace and a king on the flop (which we will most of the time) we can safely assume we're way ahead. We're also going to get mondo payola if we hit our set, especially if villain DOES have AA or KK: he'll often put us on AQ and value bet us until he dies. In fact, if I saw a flop of KQx or AQx I'm donking the flop and hoping for a raise, which I can smooth-call and then follow with a turn CRAI. This will happen often enough to be +EV.

One more thing: after we smooth-call preflop, UTG will be able to easily talk himself into an overcall given the pot's padding and the fact that he's closing the action.

I think this is safely a +EV call. I also like keeping my hand well-hidden against the TAG by the smooth-call.

[ QUOTE ]

i dont mind a turn lead.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed -- villain seems nitty enough to check behind on the turn, especially with a draw. We don't want to give a free card and we don't mind picking up the pot right now if he's on naked overs. We can also fold to a strong raise, since villain sounds straightforward enough to only make that play with something that beats us.