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Old 10-08-2007, 07:16 AM
MyTurn2Raise MyTurn2Raise is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Evolving Day-By-Day
Posts: 18,508
Default Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$

I understand your criticism and it (making too many plays) is one I've heard before. I've taken note of it and continually looked at it. Here is why I'm still not against it

--I don't believe NCAAF betting markets are efficient. I do believe it is possible to beat it betting over 1/2 the board.
(underlying premise to everything)
--My small unit plays, even after a recent dreadful downturn are still enough over .500 that I'm covering the juice. Just meeting the juice is a win in the current environment with the amount of deposit bonuses and rollovers available.
--It gives me a baseline to evaluate my weighting of units, which I've only recently taken on in my gambling career. My multi-unit plays are doing a bit better, but it's not ridic, excepting for my POTW which is 23-12 alltime. Damn...that's a really tiny sample though.
--Each bet gives me some experience. I'm doing pretty well off the pokering of late, so that's stable for now. However, I don't expect pokering to continue to be so bountiful. Thus, I am still OK doing ever so slightly above breakeven if it helps me develop the skills to make more somewhere down the line. It's a learning cost.

Many moons ago, there was a thread that many successful 2p2 gamblers actually volunteered their ROIs and whatnot. Of course, Thremp pwned all. IIRC, mine was the lowest of the regular gamblers by a significant margin. My ROI is 0.4%.
Just like with my poker, though, volume > quality.

But, your criticism is valid and something I think about and continually evaluate. Depending on which mood altering substance is influencing me, I agree or disagree with the sentiment.

ty for the feedback....this one and road faves have me breaking down and evaluating my whole 'system' including the assumptions that lie beneath the mental models
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