[Trix]

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Now assuming that 4.5 BB/100 is the absolute perfect maximum amount of you can earn from an online game with a standard mix of players per hour lets start to look at what happens every time you make a mistake. Lets throw in some very plausible mistakes that could perhaps occur, once per 100 hands. First lets say you reach the river on a board that you’ve been betting the whole way but the turn and river have made it nasty, so you play it safe and check. Unfortunately your opponent checks behind with a hand he would have called one more bet with, down to 3.5. Now a few hands later, lets say your facing a river bet with the pot laying you 8.5 to 1. You decide the odds aren’t there on your hand and fold, but in fact you were incorrect and the odds your opponent was bluffing or worse than you was in fact 7 to 1, you lose another 1.5 down to 2BB/100. Lastly let’s say your facing a river raise on a pot that’s 11 to 1 and estimate the odds your opponent would bluff raise you here are 10 to 1 and call. Boom, your down to your 1BB/100. If your not careful from there all of sudden you’re a losing player. This is why we have to be studious, this is why we have to pour over HH after HH debating, fold this river or call this river? This is why you pay coaches, and why you pour over your 1000’s of hands thinking “how can I improve my win rate by .25BB/100? Where’s the holes???”


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The math in this paragraph is incorrect.

Lets say that you are getting 9:1 and call. If it turns out that you are only good 1/11 rather than the 1/10 you need to break even you lose:
1 BB 10 times and win 9 once, making the EV of your rivercall -1/11BB.