Re: formula 2 calculate EV?
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<font color="#FF4444">[*] </font> You don't include the amount you have to call because that's no money you can win. It's the money you pay for the chance to win. So the 2nd formula is correct.
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The 1st formula is incorrect, but not for the reason stated. Here is the corrected version:
EV=(80+30+30)*0.25 - 30
This version illustrates a nice trick that saves a multiplication. Here is the algebra that justifies it:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
EV = (pot + bet)*P(win) - P(loss)*call
= (pot + bet)*P(win) - (1 - P(win))*call
= pot*P(win) + bet*P(win) - call + call*P(win)
= pot*P(win) + bet*P(win) + call*P(win) - call
= (pot + bet + call)*P(win) - call</pre><hr />
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