Re: NLTRN - Do I go broke here?
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Giving you 38.9% equity, which makes this a fold. It's important to note, however, that if he's bluffing 10% here, your equity shoots up amazingly to 45.1%, which supports a push. A bit more pokerstove work says the push/fold equilibrium point is when his CR is a bluff one time out of 22! So, surprisingly (to me at least), pushing is slightly better here, IF he bluffs 5% or more. That's player dependent of course, especially since this isn't (IMO) a very common bluffing situation. But 5% is pretty easy to get to. So I guess my recommendation is pushing here, at least when using the range I gave villain.
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I somehow forgot in the above post that he's going to fold to your push when he's bluffing, resulting in less profit from catching his bluffs. So that pushes the equilibrium point to probably 10% chance he'll bluff. It was iffy before IMO at 5%, so I think this makes it a fold. Of course, it's close, as many difficult decisions are.
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