View Single Post
  #14  
Old 10-07-2007, 12:04 PM
Dromar Dromar is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: All-in...
Posts: 995
Default Re: NLTRN - Do I go broke here?

At first glance, I would fold here unless I had a read. IMO, his CR is large enough that this becomes a push/fold situation, and as mentioned already, if you push and get called (which will almost always happen), you'll never be way ahead, but you could easily be way behind.

To push, you need to win 1245/2910 = 42.78%.
I did a little pokerstoving, and gave raising range at:
66,22,A9s,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ad4d,Ad3d,KdJd,KdTd, K9s,Kd6d,QdJd,QdTd,Qd6d,
JdTd,Jd6d,Td8d,Td7d,Td6d,87s,8d6d,8d5d,7d6d,7d5d,6 d5d,6d4d,A9o,K9o,87o

Giving you 38.9% equity, which makes this a fold. It's important to note, however, that if he's bluffing 10% here, your equity shoots up amazingly to 45.1%, which supports a push. A bit more pokerstove work says the push/fold equilibrium point is when his CR is a bluff one time out of 22! So, surprisingly (to me at least), pushing is slightly better here, IF he bluffs 5% or more. That's player dependent of course, especially since this isn't (IMO) a very common bluffing situation. But 5% is pretty easy to get to. So I guess my recommendation is pushing here, at least when using the range I gave villain.

That said, in game, I would have folded most of the time here sans read. I'll have to rethink those situations a bit.

As for calling:
The only way to justify a call here is if there's a good chance he's on a draw (which is the case here, I'd say), and you believe he'll check/fold when a blank hits, or you're prepared to call his AI on the turn when a blank hits, AND are prepared to fold when a diamond hits. So I suppose calling could be an okay play here, under some player-specific circumstances, but it's not a play I make very often.


Edit: Also, including $buy-in would help the analysis a bit.
Reply With Quote