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Old 10-07-2007, 10:46 AM
silentbob silentbob is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 894
Default Re: NFL Week 5 player props thread

Pickings are so slim, that I've decided to go the other way on a prop:

Plaxico Burress over 4 pass receptions at -125 for 1 unit (Bodog). The line for #1 WRs is usually 5, sometimes 6. Plexiglass has been playing hurt all year but is still the most targeted receiver on the team. The Jets have a horrible secondary, one of the NFL's worst. I think the over wins about 45 percent of the time, pushes about 30, and loses about 25.

I'm also eyeing Hasselbeck under 260.5 passing yards. It will depend entirely on whether Polamalu and Hampton play for the Steelers.

ETA:

Peyton Manning under 285.5 passing yards at -120 for 1 unit (Bodog). Juggernaut offense vs. the Tampa Cover 2. Without a second deep threat (Harrison), the Bucs can focus on keeping Wayne in check. Dallas Clark will probably get his, but I think Peyton will be forced into nickel-and-diming his way down the field. Tony Ugoh is also playing hurt, so Peyton may face more pressure than usual. My big concern is that TB won't be able to maintain possession. Ultimately, I think the line is about 15 to 20 yards too high.

Vincent Jackson under 60.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). He's the most-targeted WR on the Chargers but still gets fewer looks than Gates and LT2. With Champ and Dre blanketing him all game, I don't expect him to see many passes thrown at him. Also, both teams are so weak against the run that I think the clock will be running for most of the game.
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