Re: NLTRN - This is a major leak right?
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Calling with j-4 and then shoving on the flop is a worse move than shoving all in preflop with j-4 . It's very easy to show this .
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This is not true at all, I really dont feel like getting into however.
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That's a strong statement and you've provided no proof that you are in fact right . Since , my area of expertise is in mathematics , I will provide 2 EV statements and I'll let others come to their own conclusions .
My assertion proceeds as follows :
If you shove with j-4 , you have fold equity . You move in with 1250 trying to pick up 150+75+75+225=525 in chips .
Let x be the probability that you're successful with this play . Your EV can be modeled as:
EV1 = 525*x + (1-x)*[1400*2-1250] . A very reasonable estimate for x is about 2/3 but this is player dependent .
On the other hand , if you call pre and then shove 100% of the time , your EV if we let y=flop fold equity, and a = the probability you win when you get called is :
EV2= 750*y + (1-y)*(1025)*a -(1-y)*(1025)*(1-a)
There is so simple way to convince me that EV2>EV1 . This is what you're trying to say after all without using mathematics as your justification .
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