Re: Peters v. McCline
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The fact Peters loves to hit behind the head and has been warned numerous time in numerous fights give the chance of a possible DQ of Peter.
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What chance do you give this actually happening? One percent?
It's funny because the biggest bet I have ever placed was on Mayweather over Gatti. I said to my brother "Only way he loses is if he punches Gatti while he is down and is DQed". First round he hits Gatti after the referee said "STOP!" and Gatti is hurt! Luckily, the ref just pretended he never said anything.
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What about the freak injury aspect. I think when you have guys who are this size fighting a simple slip could lead to a fight ending injury (you mentioned McCline's against Valuez).
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McCline is 37, Peter is late 20's. The chances of Peter quitting due to a freak injury are less than 1%.
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These are heavyweights. The majority of them are big punchers. The chance of one of them landing a really damaging punch exists for everyone (expect Chris Byrd who have a hard time injuring a fly if he connected on the fly). McCline is a big guy (6-6 260) and while I believe he is not a big puncher, he can put some real weight behind a punch.
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You can get 25 to 1 (+2500) on McCline inside the distance. I didn't line shop, so maybe you could find better. So if you are serious about these chances of a freak accident, a DQ, or a KO/TKO, then this is the bet for you.
On 5Dimes you can bet against McCline inside the distance:
McCline wins inside distance +2275
Not McCline inside distance -4550
The market is saying that the actual chance of a McCline stoppage is ~4%. If these 5Dimes lines were considered efficient, it would be 4.13%. Personally, I think it is actually lower. Peter has an incredible chin.
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Peter will/should win this fight, but in the chance something freak happens somebody really want to lose $750 just trying to win a quick hundred. Sports betting is littered with bodies of people who figured this game/fight was "sure thing" only to see the big underdog pull it out.
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Again, you either think -750 is +EV or it is not.
What I don't understand about your type of thinking is, why aren't you on the other side then? You can already get McCline at +700 on at least one site. Come fight time, you might get an even better price. Why not bet the underdog if this is how you feel?
Also, why not take McCline to win inside the distance at +2500 or better? If you believe:
1. Peter habitually hits behind the head and has a chance of getting DQed
2. with two heavyweights fighting there is always a chance of a freak injury
3. McCline hits hard enough to knock out Peter if he lands a good punch
shouldn't you be betting on McCline to score a stoppage at 25 to 1?
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The juice ate Tuds' ability to bet on Sam Peter. Else he should lay a nice $30 on peter...that's what betting tells him to do. Not bet the other side.
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