Thread: Optimal?
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Old 10-06-2007, 01:54 PM
PrimogenitoX PrimogenitoX is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Republic of Texas
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Default Re: Optimal?

[ QUOTE ]
Assume they will call with AK, JJ+ thats 3.9% of hands.
Your equity against this range is 35%

I have simplified by giving them both $200.00 and assuming they will never both call.
My rough calculations

92.2% You win Blinds $15.00 = $13.83
2.73% (7.8% x 35%) You are called and win pot $400.00 = $10.92
5.07% (7.8% x 65%) You are called and lose pot -$400.00 = -$20.28

Equity from shove = $4.47.
Pretty close, +EV but high variance.
If they play predictably then a 3bb raise should steal their blinds a lot of the time and you can get away from a re-raise easy enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you for putting the time into doing this; but I think you assign them too tight a range. I didn't really have reads on them, but you can't assume they are perfect competent shortstackers. I think a wider range like 88+, AQ+ with some random hands like 5% of the time is in order.
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