Thread: Optimal?
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Old 10-06-2007, 01:42 PM
Sounded Simple Sounded Simple is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
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Default Re: Optimal?

Assume they will call with AK, JJ+ thats 3.9% of hands.
Your equity against this range is 35%

I have simplified by giving them both $200.00 and assuming they will never both call.
My rough calculations

92.2% You win Blinds $15.00 = $13.83
2.73% (7.8% x 35%) You are called and win pot $400.00 = $10.92
5.07% (7.8% x 65%) You are called and lose pot -$400.00 = -$20.28

Equity from shove = $4.47.
Pretty close, +EV but high variance.
If they play predictably then a 3bb raise should steal their blinds a lot of the time and you can get away from a re-raise easy enough.
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