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Old 10-05-2007, 11:14 PM
Adebisi Adebisi is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 228
Default Re: $40/$80 borgata AA

Bet/call the river. Betting is the only way to give him a chance to bluff. If you check, he's going to know it's a defensive check and you are definately showing down. Betting gives him the chance to try to take the pot off you with AQ.

I think that the straigtht expected value of betting vs. check/calling is pretty irrelavent here, because if you check, he'll value bet any hands he would call with (basically anything that beats AK).

So it just comes down his range: How often does he have nothing that he'd attempt a bluff with vs. how often he has 88 or a 9 in his hand. Given your description of how you guys play eachother and the way the board developed, I think he'd try for a bluff raise a significant percentage of the times he has busted hand on the river. A few people in this thread have already advocted a bet/fold line, so a bluff raise should definately be in his bag of tricks if he's a tough lag.

Check/folding is obv. retarded. He'll very rarely bluff here, but he can value bet worse hands. Usually when a decent aggro player takes your pre/flop/turn line, then checks the river, it means AK. So if he decided to take 44 to showdown here, there's a reasonable chance he'll value bet once you check the river.
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