[Scarmiglio]

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I'm not neglecting the possibility that we're ahead. I'm just significantly minimizing the possibility--and realizing that if we are ahead of both players we might be needing to dodge nearly half of the deck on the river if we are up against hands like J9/JT and Axs (of spades). And the read on the donker was "plays lots of hands;" not "plays any two cards," which is what one would be playing if he is to have a hand like J4/J3/J2 etc.

FWIW, I hate the idea of folding, and in the heat of battle I would probably call. But I don't think it's +EV in the long run.

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I completely agree with this.

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Commerce is my home base as well, and I know exactly the kind of weirdo bets that you're talking about. The people that make those bets are pretty easy to spot after even a few minutes at the table though.

If I was sitting at a table with these type of players, I'd STILL put us behind here 75% of the time. Add in that we can't be sure which of our outs are clean and I think this is a fold.

Of course, it took me 5 minutes of thinking about it to realize that. In the heat of battle I probably call and fold to a raise.

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And this.

It's a tough spot to be in. FWIW One Outer - you post some great hands.