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Old 10-05-2007, 02:12 PM
chesspain chesspain is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Southern New Hampshire
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Default Re: Donkbet on turn, TPGK

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You're neglecting the possibility that we're ahead right now. Maybe it's just a Commerce thing, but I see people donk top pair weak kicker on the turn all the time - especially when the board gets scary.

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I'm not neglecting the possibility that we're ahead. I'm just significantly minimizing the possibility--and realizing that if we are ahead of both players we might be needing to dodge nearly half of the deck on the river if we are up against hands like J9/JT and Axs (of spades). And the read on the donker was "plays lots of hands;" not "plays any two cards," which is what one would be playing if he is to have a hand like J4/J3/J2 etc.

FWIW, I hate the idea of folding, and in the heat of battle I would probably call. But I don't think it's +EV in the long run.
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