[InTheDark]

I'm still bumping around in the dark in my regular game, $2-5 NL with a fixed $100 buy in. I'm trying to find the sweet spot in a mostly short stacked game and to date I believe very tight is best early, a few speculative limps late and a lot of big pre-flop plays with hands such as AK, AQs, TT. It works for me, ~6 big blinds/hour over the last 3 months (400 hours).

I've recently observed the play of a new (pro) player that is contrary to my theory in most every way. He plays 85% of all limp pots and will almost always make the 3rd overcall of modest pre-flop raises. He's very active. He's also stunningly successful, maybe 20 BBs/hr over the 15 hours I've seen. His strength is player reads.

I know I'll get his chips on average, he's feeding on the fish, not me but I'm wondering how much of my short sample is variance and how much expert player reading can add to one's win rate?