[Student Caine]

I think that the biggest issue that I have with this is that you state he is "folding to every cbet" and then shove when he finally raises one. So our best case scenario here is a draw or a pair smaller than Aces or Kings.

Our worst case scenario is a set.

If we want to take his range as a true 30%, we get the following:

Board: 9h 3c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.652% 54.87% 01.78% 161331 5243.50 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 43.348% 41.56% 01.78% 122212 5243.50 { AhKc }

If we want to remove premium hands, assuming that he would have 4-bet us preflop we get:

Board: 9h 3c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.646% 56.38% 00.26% 139548 650.00 { 99-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K5s, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, AJo-A7o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 43.354% 43.09% 00.26% 106652 650.00 { AhKc }

So in these scenarios, given the dead money we would be ok to get the money in.



The problem I see here is that given the "folded to every cbet read" we are more likely looking at this:

Board: 9h 3c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.523% 75.52% 00.01% 104666 9.00 { JJ, 99, 33, A9s, A3s, KJs, K9s, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, AJo, A9o, KJo, K9o, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+ }
Hand 1: 24.477% 24.47% 00.01% 33916 9.00 { AhKc }

So we are getting roughly 2:1 with zero fold equity. I really don't think that I like this.