Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
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a CRAI on the turn would be ugly.
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Why?
I think thats the line I gravitate to here (assuming turn isn't a diamond), if i'm not folding. Gets max value out of other overpairs, probably forces a semibluff to bet a second time on the turn when his equity sucks, I think. Loses no more than pushing on the flop if we are already behind to a set. And gives villain some slack to hang himself if he decided to [censored] with you because he knows he is a 15/11 in your PT and that you are supposed to be folding to this raise.
But i'm far from confident, moreover curious. Please elaborate.
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OP said himself that villian is ABC straight forward. IMO there is no way villian fires the turn w/ like 99 or somethin. If he is firing the turn (any turn but A obv) I think we are almost always behind. With those mid PPs i think villian gets scared if we call the flop not only b/c his hand isnt that strong but also there are tons of cards that can hit on the turn that should be scare cards. And once again if he fires those turns we are def behind and our c/r becomes a bluff b/c the CALLING range of a nit on the turn def has us beat.
I agree his range includes sets and a few overpairs maybe draws(less likely i think) but given that it is 3 handed and we cbet OOP i think a nitty villian is more likely to raise a set than say 99 here. If we push the flop once again i think villians CALLIN range is narrow (not as narrow as turn) and that kinda just turns our hand into a bluff. Callin just puts us in a tough spot OOP where we are gona check most the time and hope he checks behind which i dont think he is doin often enough.
All these ideas come to mind when i think of a STRAIGHT FORWARD 15/11 nitty villian but maybe im wrong??
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