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Old 10-04-2007, 12:00 PM
mjws00 mjws00 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 276
Default Re: Downswing Need Sanity Check from 2+2ers

I've got another 100K hands at these levels that show the same thing. I don't think the winrate numbers are viable, but the player sample size is large enough to spot the obvious trends. At the end of the day the winners raising 8-12% of their hands are raising the same amount a solid 18/12 TAG is... they just don't hammer speculative hands until post-flop streets when it matters. The other thing to consider is almost most pots are raised and we still get 3-4 callers. Re-raising middle and spec hands is tough especially against call stations and chasers.

One way to think of it is letting the largest number of fish stay in the hand and compound their errors until later streets. It certainly isn't the easiest way to play as you are often in marginal spots. I don't doubt for a second the stronger players here could play over 50% VPIP from later positions and crush this game. I'm no 'baller' and I can do it.

So where are all the graphs showing that Jerry is wrong? How bout a couple 200K hand charts with 20/12 stats and a winrate above 30BB/100. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Personally I think optimal LAG ends up around 30/20 and that takes some serious skill when higher. The edge is so much smaller on later streets against stronger players. But it is extremely profitable to open your game WAY UP down at the nanos if you can play post-flop.

No screenshot = You convincing yourself your right.
Screenshot = Poker is rigged obv
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