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Old 10-04-2007, 10:22 AM
RobNottsUk RobNottsUk is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 359
Default Re: FLO8 - Fluctations or Mistakes?

Here's exact equity calcs based on shown down hands, obviously the river folder may have a nut Lo draw to, but it was a loose player who didn't have to have a great hand either. I hadn't done these before on this specific hand, but I think it backs up my concerns.


Pre-flop

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3761469
pokenum -mc 500000 -o8 8c 9h 2d ah - 6c 8d ad 5c - jd qs ks 3d
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
8c 2d Ah 9h 91470 136449 351420 12131 143733 93218 14029 0.348
6c 5c Ad 8d 85094 151765 336104 12131 128812 138771 14029 0.338
Ks Qs Jd 3d 114946 199655 300345 0 0 0 0 0.315

That shows why you raise less often against loose players. I did it to thin out some of the middle rundown cards, and trashy JT area card's which might duplicated those side cards.


Flop

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3761470
pokenum -o8 8c 9h 2d ah - 6c 8d ad 5c - jd qs ks 3d -- 7d tc 6s
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing 6s Tc 7d
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
8c 2d Ah 9h 368 449 161 56 371 96 9 0.738
6c 5c Ad 8d 29 76 534 56 96 371 9 0.178
Ks Qs Jd 3d 27 85 581 0 0 0 0 0.084

Sure looks like a good bet.


Turn

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3761471
pokenum -o8 8c 9h 2d ah - 6c 8d ad 5c - jd qs ks 3d -- 7d tc 6s qh
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing 6s Tc 7d Qh
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
8c 2d Ah 9h 28 31 5 0 14 3 0 0.847
6c 5c Ad 8d 0 0 36 0 3 14 0 0.042
Ks Qs Jd 3d 3 5 31 0 0 0 0 0.111

This 'bad' card, is an even better bet on turn 84.7%.

Obviously the river folder's equity was not likely to be less than 4.2%, but there's no reason to put him on an economic hand either.

These players really are that awful, but the small flop bet, means they always have at least 4-1 on that money. In a game with many b'door possibilities, the Hold'em & 7Stud betting structure is allowing mindless flop play to go unpunished (1/2 bet for 8% pot equity in a pot likely to be at least 12 bets).


This is not an unusual example. They'll call HU from a field with 3.6% equity, stumble into a draw on the turn, call that, and then check behind on river on the only street where they had an advantage.

Yes you benefit, but only be a very small amount, and most of the time on the flop, if you consider pot + implied odds, the 1bb flop bet is so small you hope for folds.
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