Re: FLO8 - Fluctations or Mistakes?
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I think if Fish1 wants to go for a str8, with an 5A Lo draw, putting me on Nut Lo he ought to be raising, and hope my Lo draw gets busted, possibly gaining free card on turn.
[/ QUOTE ]Hmm. Why would he do that?
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Because he has a 2 way hand, a pair 6's, a str8 draw and a 5A Lo. If he's presuming I'm betting the Nut Lo draw, then promoting his Lo improves pot equity in a large pot. Due to this player being a complete Fish, his raise would scare players behind into folding all but their best holdings.
Bottom line is, he'd love to get it HU with me, if I have AA2, then his 5 gives him outdraw chances, as well as bust cards '2' and he doesn't want to make his str8 and split the pot with some other Fish, playing 386K for instance.
There's a real thread of getting 3 or 4 bet, making promotion have better chances than usual.
As is by wimpy play, he got to make his hand to split, and it still being 2nd best, and costing him money, because he let a Hi hand in cheap.
Alot of these calls you see around ought to be raises if they're not folds, the calls are logically inconsistent lazy thinking.
Buzzz, some of your plays are much more aggressive than most's tastes, yet they work out for good sound reasons. In loose-passive post-flop play fold equity is less, but can significantly improve your expectation in large pots and actually reduce the costs of errors eg) drawing to 2nd best hand as MP2 did. Suppose the turn had been 3 or 4 bet, due to another player catching a set and deciding to 'punish' my obvious semi-bluffing?
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MP2 seems to have got rewarded for very bad play.
[/ QUOTE ]That happens a lot. But that’s good for you! If your opponents never got rewarded for bad play, they’d be less likely to play badly against you.
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Yes, bbbbb but I'd rather a 1-2-3-3 would reward them even more, with the overcharge price being definite.
As is, if you ignore split pot liklihoods, his str8-ning cards making someone a raising hand, increasing his cost to hit the gutshot, and the fact that 2 A's at least are dead, and the 8's may be live but put a Lo on the board, makes his flop call only slightly poor. From 50c he probably in long run will get back most of it. This time, he was lucky in that there were 2 pay off hands, and noone felt that the turn card gave them a strong raising hand (except in a passive game, raises are rare).
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Turn: Nuts + nut Lo draw, bet
[/ QUOTE ]Instead of thinking that way, consider thinking in terms of how many river cards are good for you and how many are bad. You might end up playing the same way, but I believe it’s a slightly better way to think.
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Agreed. In my sketch of thinking, this bet is such a No brainer. I can't see how I would ever want to give a free card, because noone behind me is likely to bet, due to their passive nature.
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As is I realised the river card was bad, but I value bet because the pot was big, noone would put me on the 98 str8 so I'd get called by weaker hands (even pairs), and the loose players behind had 'random' hands, rather than high liklihood of nut str8.
[/ QUOTE ] No hand is an island. By occasionally making a bet like this, you’ll tend to get more action the next time you bet the nuts on the river. But, yes, if you make bad bets too often on the river, you’re throwing away more money for “advertising” than you need to expend. And by boldly betting here, if you do have a solid reputaion, you might knock out one of the multitude of hands that tie you here. (Of course that doesn't help you in this particular instance, since someone has a two-card combination that makes a higher straight).
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I don't think I have a solid rep! That's another reason for betting myself, because if I bet, I'll get called by weak hands, but if I check and Fish MP1 bets, worse hands will fold.
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Furthermore if I showed weakness, MP1 bets then I end up calling MP2's raise anyway.
[/ QUOTE ]Exactly. Good point.
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What happens is I miss bets, when my hand has stood up, and pay off the same when it hasn't.
[/ QUOTE ]Hard to know, isn’t it? That’s the “play good poker” aspect of Omaha-8. I think you try to put opponents on cards – but then if the pot is large enough sometimes you pay off even when you’re pretty certain you’re beaten.
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I see the bet as on the raggy edge, and I don't expect it to be widely accepted.
But see, what decided me in favour of a marginal value bet, was -
1) disguise of my hand
2) eagernerss of players to call me with anything
3) Only MP2 would have to be called on a raise
4) Player specific reads, skew their likely holdings making J8xx and KJxx less likely (MP1 & MP2 cold called raises remember)
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