Re: Big flush w/Paired board
Bet the river. It looks like HJ hit a smaller flush since he woke up on the turn. MP could have a boat, but once he checks the river the chance he doesn't goes up enough to extract some value.
(Quick math - If he always checks without the boat, and goes for a checkraise a full 50% of the time here that would mean there is a 75% chance he doesn't have it after he checks. The 50% is a total random guess, base your assumption on his prior behavior. With the 50% c/r guess, you will lose 2 bets 1 time and win 1 bet 3 times if he always calls)
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