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Old 10-02-2007, 09:43 PM
vhawk01 vhawk01 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
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Default Re: Did He Touch Home?

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Yeah that's not obvious at all. And it's not obvious how much any additional speed increases your chance to win. The speed would need to increase the probability of scoring enough to offset the penalty if they don't get the run anyway and now you have an inferior bat in the lineup.

If the pinch runner is a pretty good fielder, it's probably not that big of a deal one way or the other.

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I can't believe that is a serious comment.

A faster runner increases the amount and types of plays you can gamble on at the plate; they can run on shallower flys, infield grounders, maybe a foul ball catch, passed ball and wild pitch. It also brings the squeeze in to play.

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Right, it goes from 1% to 2%? You see the problem with this? Plays at the plate are pretty rare. Failing to score with runners on the corners and no outs is MUCH less rare. So there would need to be a pretty huge edge in speed.
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