Re: How often do the odds makers \"get it right\"?
(This is just my synthesis from reading this board the last three weeks. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong):
Lines are a combination of game prediction and risk tolerance. The opening lines are oddsmakers' best guess of how the game will turn out. When the line shifts during the week, you can attribute it to one of two reasons:
1) The books are shifting their risk. Not in terms of getting a perfect 50/50 split, but simply because it increases a book's liability if 90 percent of bettors are on one side of a line.
2) The books are acknowledging their initial guess might have been wrong, and shift the line to compensate after they see bettors flocking to one side.
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