[Wardfish]

Why is there a schoolboy mentality in answering perfectly reasonable posts? It seems that if the first couple of responses are flippant throw-away comments, everybody else jumps on the 'one-liner bandwagon' and the OP gets no serious responses and probably goes away thinking "What a bunch of wankers! Why did I bother?"

My attempt at a considered response:

First thing you need to do is recognise that when you are "on a heater" you are experiencing the favourable side of variance. This has many different guises, obvious ones including:

- getting lots of playable hands;
- hitting lots of draws and sets;
- good hands holding up;
- bad hands drawing out.

There are other less apparent symptoms of positive variance, including:

- above average c-bet success
- above average semi-bluff success (either hitting when called, or winning when un-contested)
- avoiding monsters
- not making 2nd-best hands to pay-off opponents winners
- action being slowed down by scare cards when behind.

When the good times roll, its important to not get too cocky and think you are the greatest player in the game. Dont get too attached to the win-rate stats you are posting, as they are likely to be over-inflated and subject to regression to the mean.

You need to have it in the back of your mind that you must win the maximum that the cards/situations allow. Sometimes that means getting the lot, other times it means losing the minimum. Other times it means folding for hour after hour.

You cant predict whether the good or bad situation will present itself on the next hand. All you can do is be ready for it and maximise. Dont try to predict variance. Just expect it to exist.

Streaks occur in the past. Dont look for them: they dont exist. They are tricks played by our minds, creating patterns from random events. They are not predictable going forward, so you're never actually in a downswing or an upswing.

If you know things are going great, its right to grab everything that you can. Just dont expect it to continue indefinitely.